Oil could rise above $100 in case of a cold winter and trigger inflation, leading to the next macro-

The global benchmark Brent crude oil price could surpass $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014 in the event of another cold winter, Bank of America said on Friday.

And tensions in the global natural gas market could put more pressure on oil as high natural gas prices encourage a switch to oil.

Brent crude rose 0.27 per cent to $75.23 a barrel as of 11:45 a.m. ET on Friday, while West Texas Intermediate rose 0.42 per cent to $78.64 a barrel.

According to analysts at Thai Exness เข้าสู่ระบบ, higher oil prices could trigger inflation, which will trigger "the next macro storm". There could be three reasons for the jump:

Substitution of up to 2 million barrels a day of oil due to high gas prices

An increase in demand for crude oil to half a million barrels a day due to the cold winter

A jump in aviation consumption to 500,000 barrels per day in the first quarter of 2022 due to a boom in air travel as the economy recovers.

"If all these factors come together, oil prices could rise and lead to a second round of inflationary pressures around the world," analysts said. "In other words, we could be just one storm away from the next macro-hurricane."

According to analysts, low supply combined with the flow of stimulus money to consumers has led to a tightening of the global commodity market. So far, rising energy and commodity prices have led to inflation exceeding 5% in the past few months.

According to the BofA, apart from the winter storm and current politics, a common theme is simply underinvestment in commodities due to investors' lack of appetite for conventional energy.

"Note that these tighter physical markets have emerged just at a time when monetary and fiscal policy has been stretched to the limit," the analysts said. "Investors are simply wary of the low return on investment of the last decade and the greenback policies of the future."

Brent crude oil topped $80 a barrel earlier this week, but lived up to expectations that OPEC and its allies would consider a 400,000-barrel-a-day production increase at its meeting next week.

Meanwhile, star stock picker Katie Wood, founder of Ark Invest, took to Twitter on Thursday to express a long-term bearish stance on oil.

"The rise in oil prices this year is more a function of supply than demand," she said in her tweet. "At the turn of the 20th century, whale oil suffered the same fate and whale oil prices fluctuated dramatically. If @ARKInvest's research is correct, oil prices will suffer the same fate as whale oil prices."